Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Weather Agency Space Weather Operation Center (AFWA/XOGX, located at Offutt AFB, NE)

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 May 16 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2008
=======================================================================
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  New regions 994
(S11E04), 995 (N12E22), and 996 (N13E59) were numbered today. 
Regions 994 and 995 are simple A-type groups with a single spot. 
Region 996 is a B-type group with a beta magnetic configuration.
=======================================================================
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
=======================================================================
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
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IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for days one and two of the forecast
period (17 and 18 May).  Geomagnetic activity is expected to
increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active conditions on day three (19 May), as a coronal hole high
speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.
=======================================================================
III.  Event Probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
=======================================================================
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 May 072
Predicted   17 May-19 May  072/072/072
90 Day Mean        16 May 071
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V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  005/005-005/005-010/012
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VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
:NWRA: File downloaded: Fri May 16 22:29:03 GMT 2008

Updated daily at approx. 2230 UTC

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